The unthinkable has happened. As reported here at Hard Rock Hideout last week, Motley Crue and Poison have announced a co-headlining tour with The New York Dolls. While I think this is going to be quite a concert, there are still several questions that remain unanswered. Most pressing of all is, “How in the world did this happen?” Both Nikki Sixx and Tommy Lee said they would never tour with Poison. When Sixx was with Brides of Destruction, they had an opportunity to open for Kiss and declined, because Poison was part of that tour. Why the sudden change?
For Poison, the answer is easy. It is clearly about the money. The last couple of tours that Poison headlined had trouble selling out, in some cases there was trouble selling tickets at all. Plus, Poison is not touring behind any new material (not that the Crue are either, but at least they have a somewhat recent record to support) and they will most likely play the same tired setlist that a majority of fans have memorized.
As for Motley, I’m not sure why they agreed to do this tour. Their ticket sales have always done well and they are neither fans of nor friends with Poison. So what gives? Did management put them up to this? Did the concert promoters see dollar signs so big that they had to make this tour happen?
Unfortunately, I do not have the answers to any of these questions, but I do have a fun game we can play regarding this tour. It’s called Odds On (yeah, it’s a rip off of Pardon The Interruption’s “Odds Makers,” so sue me for lacking in originality). These are the chances that I think certain things will or will not happen during the Poison/Motley Crue summer tour.
Chances of this tour being completed
82%. Poison are dedicated professionals and Motley Crue always finish a tour regardless of how messed up they get. However, what could cause this tour to collapse is if the bands don’t get along. What will the chemistry be like? Will any pot shots be taken by the Crue at Poison? If Nikki Sixx and Tommy Lee were forced into doing this tour, there is no telling what might happen as the summer progresses. Anger, resentment, and perhaps even jealousy may erupt from either or both of these hard core rockers. And past experience has shown us that professionalism is not one of Tommy Lee’s priorities. Good luck to the road crew!
Chances that the majority of these concerts sell out
61%. I saw the prices for this concert and they were about what I expected. The range is between $45 and $95 (before fees). While both of these bands sell well, the economy is still a little shaky and fans are carefully choosing which concerts they want to see. What help this tour is that it was announced early. I believe there is potential for this show to do well, especially in the northeast, but in other areas of the US, I’m not so sure.
Chances that Poison will go on stage last
3%. I know that this is billed as a co-headlining tour, but let’s be real. The last band to go on for the evening is the true headliner. The fact that Motley is doing this tour at all after Sixx and Lee said that would never happen means some egos had to be soothed. There is almost no chance that Motley would go on stage at any time but last. The 3% is up there, because maybe, just maybe, in Pittsburgh, Poison might be allowed to be the headliners (Poison is from PA). Other than that, it’s Motley coming out last every night.
Chances that Bret Michaels out performs Vince Neil
97%. Barring some miracle scenario where Vince goes to a performance coach prior to the launch of this tour, Brett Michaels is going to outperform Vince Neil at every stop. Brett is in better shape than Vince. Brett is a better vocalist than Vince. Brett is a better guitar player than Vince. Brett is a better entertainer than Vince. Plus, Brett sings all the words to his songs. Vince will give you every third word in between huffed panting because his overweight body can’t handle sprinting all over the stage for 90 minutes.
Chances that Poison and Motley Crue perform more than a one song encore
17%. I’ve seen a lot of co-headlining tours. I’ve seen a lot of co-headlining glam tours too. Almost always, there is the one song encore. On the last two Motley tours that I’ve seen, the Crue has done a one song encore. Every time that I’ve seen Poison (I believe it’s been a total of 7 times), they have performed a one song encore. I don’t see any reason for this to change.
Chances of an all star jam encore featuring members of all three bands
9%. While it would be a fan’s dream come true to see all the members of The New York Dolls, Poison, and Motley Crue jamming together to one of their favorite rock songs (a cover of a Led Zeppelin tune, perhaps), it just isn’t going to happen. Again, we’re not even sure how well the bands are going to get along. The chemistry required to pull off an all star jam is severely lacking. I think this is more a case of three separate bands performing for the fans, collecting their pay, and going home at the end of the summer. There’s no sharing of a tour bus, no hotel parties featuring all members of the band, and no back stage group hug amongst the different bands. This is clearly an every band for themselves tour. Perhaps they will prove me wrong, but I doubt it.
Chances of this tour happening again
0%. This is a once in a lifetime deal. If you want to see these two bands together, then you’d better be in front of your computer on March 18th when tickets go on sale.