With football season upon us, all of the gamblers are talking about odds. What are the odds for this game? What are the odds for that game? Well, I like to look at the odds too, but my thought pattern heads in a different direction—music. So instead of presenting the odds on Sunday’s big games, I thought I’d put together the odds on a few things that may happen in the world of hard rock music. I call this edition of Vie’s Verses, “Chances Are…” It’s easy to play and easy to follow along. So join me know as we look at the chances of certain things happening in the world of hard rock and heavy metal.
Black Sabbath Release One More Album With Bill Ward
During recent interviews, Ozzy Osbourne has stated that he would love to record one more Black Sabbath album with Bill Ward behind the drum kit. He’s been on record saying that if Ward could get his act together, they could do it. So, what are the chances that this would actually happen? Coming off of a very successful tour behind a brilliant studio album (13), the stars are aligned for Sabbath to return to the studio and make another record. However, with health concerns for Tony Iommi, the overall age of the band, and the weariness that being on the road brings, I don’t see Black Sabbath gathering to record another record anytime in the near future. In addition to all of that, Bill Ward would still need to work out financial terms with Sharon Osbourne, which can be a deal breaker as well. While I think the chances are decent that Black Sabbath will make another record, I think that they are much less than that to make a record with Bill Ward.
Chances: Slim (22%)
Lightning Bolt Goes Platinum
Next month, Pearl Jam will be releasing their 10th studio album, Lightning Bolt. I have high expectations for this record, especially based on lead single, “Mind Your Manners.” What I really what to know is how well will this record sell. The band has never released a record that went less than gold, but their last platinum album was 1998’s Yield. They haven’t had a multiplatinum album since Vitalogy, all the way back in 1994. That’s almost 20 years. And yet, the band continues to press on. Their Wrigley concert, held earlier this summer, sold out in minutes, and most of the dates for their fall tour are also sold out. There is still a rather large demand for Pearl Jam, but will that demand translate into record sales? Judging from their previous releases, the easy argument is no, but I have a feeling that Lightning Bolt is going to be a very special album.
Chances: Good (78%)
Motley Crue’s Next Tour Really Is Their Last
Every band says that their farewell tour really is the end. And then something inevitably happens and the band is touring again within five years. So is Motley Crue the next in line to claim it’s the end, only to be back out on the road in a few short years? I’ve read all the interviews with Vince Neil stating that this is really going to be it. The band doesn’t want to be on a forever farewell tour, they don’t want to be like other bands who claim it’s the end, only to come back, but again, every single band says that. It’s no secret that Crue has had difficulty selling out shows on recent tours. They haven’t released a new album since Saints Of Los Angeles in 2008 and while there is speculation that a new album will be released before the next tour, I am doubtful. I am also doubtful that this next tour will be their last. The band is probably going through some inner turmoil right now (nothing new to them) and just want to place an end date out there so they can say, “Okay, the end is in sight. I can get through this now.” Honestly though what else are they going to do? Yes, Nikki has SIXX:AM, but that is nowhere near the same as having Motley Crue. And while Mick Mars health may be the one piece that makes this “farewell” tour a reality, I am still doubtful.
Chances: Slim (24%)
Axl And Slash Bury The Hatchet And The Original Guns N Roses Reunites
By now most fans have given up the ghost and no longer holding out for an all original member reunion from one of the biggest rock bands ever, Guns N Roses. While Slash may be willing to bury the hatchet and go out on a final mega-tour, Axl will never allow this reunion to take place. There is still way too much anger inside of him, and for whatever reason, he still holds a lot of hatred toward Slash. I personally think that Axl is jealous of how loved Slash is by the GNR fans. Whatever the reason, Axl has stated that there is no way he would ever be on stage with Slash again. And while there was a sliver of hope about a year ago, I think that hope has died. The only way to see the original Guns N Roses on stage together is to watch it on video.
Chances: Absolutely None (0%)
Van Halen Records A New Album And Tours By 2015
All has been quiet in the Van Halen camp as of late. Rumors pop up from time to time that the band is in the studio, or planning a massive tour for next year, only to be quickly shot down by the band or their PR department. And while the demand for tickets is still there, the real question lies on whether this band can keep it together for an entire tour. Between infighting, unstableness, and huge egos, Van Halen is always at the center of some sort of controversy when they are on the road. Their last album was supposedly a bunch of reworked outtakes from the 70s, which leads to the question of whether there is any creative fuel left in the tank. David Lee Roth is always ready to record or head out on the road, but his musical partner, Eddie Van Halen, works at a much slower pace. With no new tour dates emerging, I think it is safe to say that it will be a long wait before we get a new Van Halen album.
Chances: Slim To None (17%)
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